Dean Rohrer

لعبة الشرق الأوسط الجديدة

مدريد ـ حتى وقتنا هذا لا يزال من غير المؤكد ما إذا كان الربيع العربي سوف يفتح الأبواب أمام أنظمة ديمقراطية ذات مصداقية في مختلف أنحاء العالم العربي. ولكن في حين لم ينقشع الغبار بعد رغم مرور أشهر من الاضطرابات في تونس والقاهرة وأماكن أخرى من العالم العربي، فإن الثورات العربية كان لها بالفعل تأثير هائل على البنية الاستراتيجية للشرق الأوسط.

حتى وقت قريب، كانت المنطقة مقسمة إلى معسكرين: تحالف متنافر من العرب المعتدلين الضعفاء، و"محور المقاومة"، الذي شكلته إيران وسوريا وحماس وحزب الله ضد المخططات والتصميمات الأميركية والإسرائيلية للمنطقة. أما تركيا التي تحركها استراتيجية "لا مشاكل على الإطلاق" مع الجيران، فإن سعيها إلى القيام بدور قيادي في سياسة الشرق الأوسط دفعها إلى الاقتراب من سوريا وإيران.

لقد فضح الربيع العربي الأسس الهشة التي قام عليها محور المقاومة بالكامل، ودفعه إلى حافة الانهيار. فكانت حركة حماس أول من اختار الانسحاب من ذلك المحور. فبدافع من خوفها من العواقب التي قد تترتب على زوال رعاتها في دمشق، انسحبت حركة حماس تكتيكياً من المحور وتركت مصر تقودها نحو المصالحة مع السلطة الفلسطينية المؤيدة للغرب بشروط كانت قد رفضتها في ظل الرئيس المصري السابق حسني مبارك.

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