La guerra del Líbano un año después

LONDRES – Hace ahora casi un año desde que la Unión Europea se comprometió a estabilizar el Líbano después de la guerra del verano pasado. Con su decisión de enviar miles de soldados a ese país para la aplicación de la resolución 1701 del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas, la UE adoptó su medida más audaz hasta ahora con vistas a la creación de una política exterior y de seguridad común, pero está por ver si la UE podrá estabilizar en verdad el sistema político más fracturado de la más peligrosa zona de conflicto de la vecindad inmediata de Europa.

La guerra entre Israel y Hizbollah de 2006 recordó a la Unión una vez más que sus intereses estratégicos no siempre coinciden totalmente con los de los Estados Unidos. Como el gobierno de Bush adoptó una actitud no intervencionista ante la guerra en el sur del Líbano y en vista de la camisa de fuerza en que se encuentran encerrados los EE.UU. con la guerra del Iraq, la UE tuvo que tomar la delantera.

La UE sigue –de momento– relativamente incontaminada por la desintegración del prestigio de los Estados Unidos en el Oriente Medio, pero su reputación podría empeorar, si permite que su compromiso con el Líbano pase a formar parte de la estrategia de los EE.UU, que se está perfilando, con vistas a aislar al Irán intensificando las divisiones regionales actuales entre chiíes y suníes. Para evitarlo, la UE debe complementar su compromiso en el Líbano con una estrategia política sutil que procure evitar el aislamiento de la población chií del Líbano, durante mucho tiempo reprimida.

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