Aufschwung nach Keynes’schem Rezept

BERKELEY – Es ist keineswegs vorherbestimmt, dass die Weltwirtschaft in den nächsten drei, vier Jahren  in eine schwere Krise schlittern wird. Wir könnten auch davonkommen. Allerdings sollten die Regierungen auf Nummer sicher gehen und mehr unternehmen, um die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit und das aus heutiger Sicht wahrscheinlich langsame oder negative Wachstum zu dämpfen und abzuschwächen sowie diese Phase insgesamt zu verkürzen. 

Es liegt in der Natur der Sache – oder zumindest in der Natur des Menschen, – dass aktuell umsichtige und angemessene Strategien im Rückblick übertrieben erscheinen. Irgendwann wird die Weltwirtschaft wieder zügig expandieren. Allerdings wäre es höchst unvorsichtig, davon auszugehen, dass wir uns bereits an diesem Wendepunkt befinden und dass es nicht mehr schlimmer werden kann.

Sich in Erinnerung zu rufen, dass die Weltwirtschaft in den vergangenen 15 Jahren von drei Lokomotiven angetrieben wurde, ist die vielleicht beste Möglichkeit, die Situation zu betrachten. Die erste Lokomotive waren hohe Investitionen, vor allem in den USA, infolge der Revolution im Bereich Informationstechnologie. Die zweite waren Investitionen in Immobilien, ebenfalls vorwiegend in den USA, ausgelöst durch den Eigenheimboom. Bei der dritten Lokomotive handelte es sich um Investitionen im Produktionsbereich – vor allem in Asien – und die USA wurden zum Importeur der letzten Instanz.

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