Процветание ИТ было мифом только в Европе

Экономика Америки остается на грани двойного спада, доллар ослаб, и Уолл Стрит кажется неспособной встать на ноги. Апокалиптический сценарий в создании? Навряд ли. Cледует помнить, что экономика США завершила 2002 г. с показателем годового экономического роста 2,5 % - что выше длительной тенденции, подсчитанной для территории Евро многими экспертами, включая Европейский Центральный Банк.

Дело в том, что, несмотря на избытки 1999-2000 гг., экономические трудности последних двух лет и тенденцию думать о процветании технологий 90-ых гг. как о простой рекламе, Соединенные Штаты подверглись глубоким структурным изменениям в экономике в течение прошлого десятилетия. Рост производительности почти удвоился, увеличившись с чуть выше 1% в период 1990-95 гг. до более 2% в 1995-2000 гг. Более того, мы не видим никакого признак спада: в 2001-02 гг. рост производительности в среднем составил почти 3%.

Новые информационные технологии составляют, возможно, 80% от ускорения в производительности Соединенных Штатов. Более того, т.к. многое из недавнего технологического прогресса, наблюдаемого в США, в значительной степени еще предстоит использовать, ускорение производительности является не временным явлением, а длительным. Заглядывая в будущее, это очень важно потому, что долгосрочное экономическое благополучие любой страны зависит от устойчивого роста производительности.

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