Le Boom des NTIC : un mythe purement européen

L'économie américaine reste au bord d'une double récession : le dollar est faible et Wall Street semble incapable de se reprendre. Un scénario apocalyptique en préparation ? Pas vraiment. L'économie américaine, faut-il le rappeler, a clôturé l'année 2002 avec un taux de croissance de 2,5 %, supérieur à la tendance à long terme estimée pour la zone euro par de nombreux experts, dont ceux de la Banque centrale européenne.

Le fait est qu'en dépit des surplus des années 1999-2000, les difficultés économiques de ces deux dernières années et la tendance à croire au boom technologique des années 1990 comme le simple fait d'une médiatisation à outrance, les États-Unis ont subi des changements structurels économiques profonds pendant cette décennie. La croissance de la productivité a presque doublé, passant de 1 % en 1990-95 à plus de 2 % en 1995-2000. De plus, il n'existe aucun signe de ralentissement : en 2001-02, la croissance de la productivité atteint une moyenne de presque 3 %.

Les Nouvelles Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication ne représentent que 80 % de cet accroissement de la productivité américaine. De plus, du fait qu'une grande partie des avancées technologiques récentes dont les États-Unis sont témoins reste largement inexploitée, l'accélération de la productivité n'est pas un phénomène temporaire mais bien un phénomène durable. Si l'on se projette dans l'avenir, ceci est d'importance cruciale car le bien-être à long terme de n'importe quel pays dépend de la croissance constante de la productivité.

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