La vivienda global

Las viviendas son las inversiones más locales, arraigadas en un lugar determinado como un árbol, y, por ende, creciendo o marchitándose en respuesta a las condiciones económicas locales. Todo el mundo pasa como un relámpago por las pantallas de nuestros televisores, pero el mercado de nuestras casas, constituido casi en su totalidad por aficionados locales, sigue plantado allí, en nuestro propio patio trasero.

Pronto, sin embargo, todo esto podría cambiar. De aquí a un mes, la Bolsa Mercantil de Chicago (CME), en colaboración con mi compañía, MacroMarkets, y también con Fiserv y Standard & Poor’s, lanzará contratos de futuros y opciones sobre los precios inmobiliarios en diez ciudades de Estados Unidos. Los contratos se acordarán sobre los Indices de Precios Inmobiliarios de S&P/Case-Shiller, que se generó a partir del trabajo académico que mi colega Karl Case y yo iniciamos hace casi veinte años. Durante muchos años, hemos estado haciendo campaña a favor de los futuros sobre la vivienda, pero, hasta ahora, ninguna bolsa quiso usar este tipo de índices para crear un mercado de futuros.

Los mercados de futuros sobre los precios de la vivienda les permitirán a inversores de todo el mundo invertir indirectamente en propiedades en Estados Unidos, comprando intereses en ellas a través de estos mercados. Un inversor en París, Río de Janeiro o Tokio podrá invertir en viviendas ocupadas por sus dueños en Nueva York, Los Angeles y Las Vegas.

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