L'imprévisibilité des marchés

NEW HAVEN – Dans son numéro d'octobre, la revue du FMI, World Economic Outlook,   proclame que ampquot;des mesures énergiques ont permis un rebond de la production industrielle, du commerce mondial et des ventes au détailampquot;. Le FMI, comme beaucoup de dirigeants nationaux, semble croire que les politiques mises en place vont véritablement mettre fin à la récession mondiale.

On peut donner crédit aux dirigeants nationaux et aux organisations internationales pour les signes de redémarrage économique qui ont émergé au printemps. La coordination des politiques économiques au niveau mondial qui a été formalisée dans la déclaration du G20 en avril dernier est sans précédent historique.

Mais on peut aussi estimer que les dirigeants politiques se sont proclamé victorieux un peu hâtivement. N'oublions pas que le plus souvent les récessions se terminent d'elles-mêmes, avant même que l'Etat ne prenne des mesures de stabilisation. Ainsi aux USA, les récessions de 1857-8, 1860-61, 1865-7, 1882-85, 1887-88, 1890-91, 1893-94, 1895-97, 1899-1900, 1902-04, 1907-8 et de 1910-12 se sont toutes terminées sans l'aide de la Réserve fédérale qui n'existe que depuis 1914.

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