北朝鲜的赌徒

首尔——在经历了痛苦的调查过程后,韩国将其天安号战舰于5月26号沉没的罪责归咎于北朝鲜。天安号的沉没似乎并不是一个孤立事件,而是北朝鲜整体行为模式所发生的变化,这些因素也使围绕应对之策所展开的争论变得更加复杂。 事实上,从2008年8月金可能因一次中风病倒以后,北朝鲜就变得越来越大胆和冲动。

过去,北朝鲜最高领导人在对外界施加压力时,更倾向于小心计算这样做的代价和收获。 他们一般一次只打一张牌。 但在2009年的4月和5月,他们将审慎的外交姿态抛到了九霄云外,在短短几周时间里发射了远程火箭(以及各式导弹)并实施了第二次核试验。

随着国际社会对此采取措施,通过了联合国安理会第1874号决议,北朝鲜又迅速发起了一波主攻美国和韩国的魅力攻势。 北朝鲜当局释放了两名美国记者和一名韩国工人,上述人士于2009年8月因被控违反北朝鲜法律而被捕。

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