金融之雾

军事指挥官谈论“战争之雾”,也就是标志战斗特征的扑朔迷离的情形。最近的信贷和流动性危机揭示了金融市场上这一相似的情况,因为无人、甚至连中央银行看起来也不理解其性质及其程度。

人们常说,所谓的“次级”危机是过于宽松的货币政策的结果。这一政策导致金融市场上过多的流动性。但是,这里就有一个明显的矛盾,因为流动性过度怎么会最终导致流动性短缺,结果不得不由中央银行来弥补呢?

实际上,货币宽松或许不是过度流动性、而是剩余储蓄的表象。这反应在大部分发达国家不断增加的收入不平等以及产油国和亚洲各国令人眼花缭乱的盈余之上。类似中国和海湾国家的国家财富基金将这些国家的预算盈余用于投资,只不过是全球剩余储蓄的冰山的一角。

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