Die falschen Versprechen der Finanzmarktliberalisierung

Es läuft etwas schief in der Finanzwelt. Das Problem ist allerdings nicht eine Finanzkrise in einem Schwellenmarkt, die dann auch auf Nachbarländer übergreift. Sogar den anfälligsten Ländern gelang es, die letzten Finanzschocks im Mai und Juni 2006 recht glimpflich zu überstehen. Das Problem ist vielmehr in relativ ruhigen Zeiten zu Tage getreten: die prognostizierten Vorteile der Finanzmarktglobalisierung sind nirgendwo in Sicht.

Die Globalisierung der Finanzmärkte ist ein junges Phänomen. Ihren Anfang nahm diese Entwicklung Anfang der 1970er Jahre, als Recycling-Petrodollars für enorme Kapitalflüsse in die Entwicklungsländer sorgten. Allerdings gingen die meisten Schwellenländer erst um 1990 das Risiko ein, die Kontrollen privater Portefeuilles und Geldflüsse der Banken abzuschaffen. Seither nahmen private Kapitalflüsse explosionsartig zu und stellten so den Handel mit Waren und Dienstleistungen in den Schatten. Die wirkliche Globalisierung der Finanzmärkte gibt es also erst seit ungefähr 15 Jahren.

Die Liberalisierung der Kapitalflüsse folgte einer zwingenden Logik – zumindest schien es so. Die Entwicklungsländer, so argumentierte man, verfügen über eine Fülle von Investitionsmöglichkeiten, aber es mangelt ihnen an Ersparnissen. Kapitalflüsse aus dem Ausland würden es ihnen ermöglichen, auf die Ersparnisse der reichen Länder zurückzugreifen, um so ihre Investitionsraten zu erhöhen und das Wachstum anzuregen. Darüber hinaus würde die Globalisierung der Finanzmärkte es armen Ländern ermöglichen, die Folgen der mit zeitweiligen Terms-of Trade-Schocks einhergehenden Boom-and-Bust-Zyklen auszubügeln und andere schwierige Phasen besser zu verdauen. Schließlich würden verschwenderische Regierungen durch die auf den Finanzmärkten herrschende Ordnung diszipliniert.

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