金融自由化的虚幻前景

当今金融世界中出了问题。问题并不是某个新兴市场再次发生金融危机,并且其可以预料得到的传播危及到邻国。即使是风险最大的国家在2006年5月和6月发生的上一轮金融突发事件中也相对比较轻松。相反,相对平缓的时期却暴露了现今的问题,那就是,人们所预想的金融全球化所带来的利益无处可见。

金融全球化是一个新现象。其起源可以追溯到七十年代,当时,石油美元循环促使大量的资本向发展中国家流动。但是,只是到了九十年代左右大多数新兴市场体才摈弃谨慎,解除了私有投资组合以及银行资金流动的控制。从此以来,私有资本流动剧增,令货物贸易和服务贸易相形见绌。因此,当今世界经历真正的金融全球化只不过有15年时间左右。

表面上而言,解除资本流动的限制具有坚实的逻辑。这一理论认为,发展中国家具有大量的投资机会,但是却缺少储蓄。外国资本流入可以让这些国家利用富国的储蓄,提高其投资比率,并且刺激经济增长。此外,金融全球化还将让穷国平稳渡过与进出口货价比率巨变以及其他时运不济相联系的繁荣破灭的周期。最后,承受金融市场戒律将会让某些无所顾忌的政府有所收敛。

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