Dialogue avec les extrémistes

JERUSALEM – La politique moyenne-orientale du président Bush, telle qu'il l'a définie en janvier 2002 lors de son discours sur "l'axe du mal" est en train de changer radicalement. Son paradigme de politique étrangère d'une alliance des "modérés" pour vaincre les "extrémistes" – avec le soutien enthousiaste de dirigeants israéliens dépourvus d'imagination et de ceux des Arabes (avec en tête l'Egypte et l'Arabie saoudite) qui redoutent un changement radical - a échoué. Les "extrémistes" que Bush pensait vaincre par des sanctions économiques, l'isolation diplomatique et l'action militaire l'emportent. Ce sont les "modérés" qui doivent maintenant changer de politique.

Israël et les USA n'ont pas réussi à déloger le Hamas de Gaza et à le contraindre à accepter les conditions exigées pour mettre fin au boycott international. Craignant le coût d'une intervention dans les ruelles de Gaza, Israël a concédé une victoire stratégique au Hamas. Il a accepté une trêve sous la houlette d'un gouvernement égyptien craignant l'influence iranienne sur Gaza à ses frontières. Cela a sapé la politique de la communauté internationale consistant à ne pas négocier avec ce groupe fondamentaliste, tout en lui donnant une légitimité politique et lui permettant de continuer à se réarmer. Le Hamas est maintenant une menace stratégique pour les centres urbains et les installations militaires israéliennes.

En 2006, la guerre d'Israël contre le Hezbollah au Liban, avec le soutien des USA et de la totalité du camp arabe "modéré", n'a pas eu davantage de succès. Aujourd'hui le Hezbollah est plus puissant qu'il ne l'a jamais été sur le plan militaire (la résolution 1710 du Conseil de sécurité qui appelait à son désarmement est un échec total) et en meilleure position politique qu'avant la guerre. Parvenant admirablement à combiner les fibres politiques, religieux et nationalistes, le dirigeant du Hezbollah,  Hassan Nazrallah, est devenu le maître incontesté du Liban.

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