La force dans la désunion de la zone euro

FLORENCE – Cela fait des mois qu’un débat de plus en plus frénétique, voire apocalyptique, à propos du destin de l’euro a été la principale source d’instabilité globale. La monnaie commune de l’Europe peut-elle survivre ? Personne d’autre qu’Alan Greenspan, l’ancien président de la Réserve Fédérale des Etats-Unis, a récemment déclaré qu’elle ne le pourrait pas.

Pourtant, l’euro semble résister étonnamment bien à ses malheurs. Au contraire du début de l’été 2010, il est resté très stable par rapport au dollar sur les marchés de changes. Cette stabilité est étonnante.

Les sceptiques ne sont pas à court d’arguments pour critiquer l’euro. La diplomatie de crise de haut niveau déployée par les gouvernements européens, ainsi que des mécanismes nouveaux et de plus en plus complexes, calment parfois les marchés pour un court instant. Mais la vague de doute reprend rapidement le dessus. Le temps d’une journée, parfois même seulement quelques heures, les traders succombent à l’illusion de stabilité, donnant naissance à une reprise des marchés financiers, aussi euphorique qu’éphémère. Ensuite, ils se réveillent à la réalité que rien n’a vraiment changé et que le problème réapparaitra quelques semaines ou mois plus tard, dans une forme qui semble encore plus insoluble.

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