Paul Lachine

La última línea de defensa de la eurozona

NUEVA YORK – La crisis de la eurozona está a punto de alcanzar el clímax. Grecia ya es insolvente. Portugal e Irlanda vieron hace poco sus bonos degradados a la condición de basura. España todavía puede perder acceso a los mercados, conforme a sus penurias fiscales y financieras se le añade la incertidumbre política. Italia enfrenta una presión financiera rampante.

En 2012, la deuda pública de Grecia superará el 160% del PIB (y seguirá creciendo). Las alternativas a la reestructuración de la deuda desaparecen rápidamente. Un rescate oficial completo del sector público griego (por parte del Fondo Monetario Internacional, el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Europeo de Estabilidad Financiera) sería el mejor ejemplo de una jugada con riesgo moral: extremadamente caro y casi imposible desde el punto de vista político, debido a la resistencia de los votantes del núcleo de la eurozona (empezando por los alemanes).

Mientras tanto, la actual propuesta francesa de renegociación voluntaria con los bancos está naufragando, ya que impondría a los griegos tasas de interés prohibitivamente altas. Del mismo modo, la recompra de la deuda supondría un inmenso despilfarro de recursos públicos, ya que el valor residual de la deuda aumenta al comprarla y eso beneficia a los acreedores más que al deudor soberano.

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