El fin del mundo tal como lo conocemos

CAMBRIDGE – Consideremos el siguiente escenario. Después de una victoria del partido de izquierda Syriza, el nuevo gobierno de Grecia anuncia que quiere renegociar los términos de su acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y la Unión Europea. La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, se mantiene firme en su postura y dice que Grecia debe cumplir con las condiciones existentes. 

Por miedo a la inminencia de un colapso financiero, los depositantes griegos corren hacia la salida. Esta vez, el Banco Central Europeo se niega a salir al rescate y los bancos griegos se quedan sin efectivo. El gobierno griego instituye controles de capital y, finalmente, se ve obligado a emitir dracmas para proporcionar liquidez doméstica.

Tras quedar Grecia fuera de la eurozona, todos los ojos viran hacia España. Alemania y otros en un principio son categóricos: dicen que harán lo que haga falta para impedir una corrida bancaria similar allí. El gobierno español anuncia más recortes fiscales y reformas estructurales. Aliviada por los fondos del Mecanismo de Estabilidad Europeo, España se mantiene financieramente a flote durante varios meses.

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