Paul Lachine

人口增长的终点

新德里——根据联合国人口司的数据,10月31日,世界人口总量已经突破了70亿大关。与往常一样,这样一个里程碑成了众多会议、讨论会和研究论文的主题,其中就包括悲观的马尔萨斯预言。毕竟,据联合国预测,世界人口将在2050年达到93亿,在本世纪末超过100亿。

但是,这样的预测误解了基础人口学动态。我们所面临的未来绝非人口增长过多,而是过少。

大多数国家都在去年完成了最新人口普查,数据表明,大部分地区的生育率都在下降。发达国家出生率低下的状况已经维持了较长时间,但这一次,大部分发展中国家的出生率也开始迅速下降。中国、俄罗斯和巴西都已不再大量生育下一代,印度的生育数量也大大降低了。事实上,不出10年,世界生育率就将下降到替换率以下。人口增长大概可以持续到本世纪中叶(拜寿命延长所赐),但就新人替旧人而言,人类规模将不会再扩张了。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/hpiYnLX/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now