La Banque centrale européenne accélère le rythme

Jusqu’à présent, la dynamique croissance économique des États-unis a offert à la Banque centrale européenne l’environnement nécessaire pour augmenter des taux d’intérêts très bas à un rythme lent et régulier, qui permet de limiter les frictions avec les dirigeants politiques de la zone euro et reste en même temps satisfaisant.

Cette situation est sur le point de changer. Selon des observations empiriques faites aux Etats-Unis, l’économie serait sur une pente glissante et cette situation pourrait devenir visible dans les prochains mois. A moins que la BCE n’accélère le rythme de la hausse des taux d’intérêts, l’objectif de leur neutralité n’est pas réalisable politiquement, ce qui compromet les chances de succès de la banque en matière de stabilité des prix.

La BCE doit presser le pas, non pas parce que les perspectives de croissance sont nombreuses, mais pour la raison opposée : il est à craindre que la croissance européenne ne ralentisse, ce qui limiterait la possibilité d’une prochaine hausse des taux. En effet, même avant la récession de l’économie américaine, un nombre important de membres du Conseil des gouverneurs de la BCE était déjà arrivé à la conclusion qu’il fallait accélérer l’augmentation des taux d’intérêts pour atteindre l’objectif de la neutralité monétaire.

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