Das ostasiatische Dreieck

Wieder einmal bedroht Nordkoreas Streben nach Atomwaffen die Stabilität in Asien. Eilig arrangierte der neue japanische Ministerpräsident Shinzo Abe am Vorabend des nordkoreanischen Atomtests ein Gipfeltreffen mit dem chinesischen Präsidenten Hu Jintao, bei dem man sich einig war, dass ein derartiges Unterfangen „nicht tolerierbar“ sei.

Das Gipfeltreffen ist eine begrüßenswerte Entwicklung. Allerdings steht der neue Ministerpräsident Abe im Ruf ein ausgeprägterer Nationalist zu sein als sein Vorgänger Junichiro Koizumi, dessen Beharren auf Besuche des umstrittenen Yasukuni-Schreins (wo auch japanische Kriegsverbrecher des Zweiten Weltkriegs bestattet sind) dazu beitrug, die Beziehungen zu China zu komplizieren. Um die Stabilität zu erhalten, bedarf es einer Verbesserung der japanisch-chinesischen Beziehungen.

Obwohl die nuklearen Ambitionen Nordkoreas Besorgnis erregend und destabilisierend sind, ist jedoch der Aufstieg Chinas die bedeutendste strategische Frage in Ostasien. Innerhalb von drei Jahrzehnten ist seine Wirtschaft jährlich um 8 bis 10 % gewachsen. Seine Verteidigungsausgaben stiegen sogar noch schneller. Und dennoch spricht die chinesische Führung von einem „friedlichen Aufstieg“ und von einer „friedlichen Entwicklung“.

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