Deuda sin ahogo

LONDRES – Desde la década de 1970, los economistas han advertido que una unión monetaria no podría mantenerse sin una unión fiscal. Pero los líderes de la zona del euro no tuvieron en cuenta su consejo –y las consecuencias son cada vez más visibles. Europa enfrenta ahora una difícil elección: corregir este error fundamental en el diseño y avanzar hacia una unión fiscal, o abandonar la moneda común.

La segunda opción tendría consecuencias devastadoras. Efectivamente, si bien la conveniencia de establecer una unión monetaria puede haber sido cuestionable en la década de 1990, desmantelar la zona del euro en la actualidad dispararía una profunda agitación económica, social y política a lo largo de Europa. Para evitar este resultado, los líderes europeos deben comenzar a diseñar e implementar estrategias que apunten a acercar a la zona del euro a una unión fiscal.

Por cierto, una unión fiscal como la que existe en Estados Unidos es una posibilidad distante, que los líderes de la zona del euro no deberían pretender a la brevedad –ni siquiera durante sus vidas. Pero eso no significa que establecer una unión fiscal sea una quimera. Pequeños pasos en la dirección adecuada hoy pueden producir una diferencia significativa.

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