Comments 9

Dluh bez utonutí

May 9, 2013 Paul De Grauwe

LONDÝN – Ekonomové už od 70. let varují, že měnovou unii nelze udržet bez unie fiskální. Vedoucí představitelé eurozóny se však jejich radou neřídili – a následky vycházejí stále více najevo. Evropa dnes stojí před obtížnou volbou: buď tuto zásadní konstrukční vadu napravit a posunout se směrem k fiskální unii, anebo společnou měnu opustit.

Volba druhé možnosti by měla zničující důsledky. Zatímco v 90. letech se dalo debatovat o tom, zda je vytvoření měnové unie žádoucí, dnes by demontáž eurozóny vyvolala po celé Evropě hluboké hospodářské, sociální a politické otřesy. Aby se čelní evropští představitelé takovému výsledku vyhnuli, musí začít vymýšlet a zavádět strategie zaměřené na přiblížení eurozóny k fiskální unii.

Fiskální unie podobná té, jaká dnes existuje ve Spojených státech, je samozřejmě vzdálenou vyhlídkou, jejíž dosažení by šéfové eurozóny neměli v brzké době – ba ani za svého života – očekávat. To ovšem neznamená, že samotné vytvoření fiskální unie je chimérou. I malé krůčky správným směrem dnes mohou situaci výrazně změnit.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 in all 11 Comments on this article

Jose araujo Jun 18, 2013

In what sense would the dismantle of the Eurozone, even the EU have devastating consequences?

Is this a Dogma, written in stone that we cannot question? Was the dismantle of USSR catastrophic? The Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, etc etc

EU is a tyranny, we currently live under an Eurocrat dictatorship, ruled by unelected officials, breaking up would be the best thing for Europe, e are a continent not a country, face it and move on. Small is beautiful.
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Manuel Gomes Samuel May 15, 2013

Paul De Grauwe is right. The million dollar question is whether the EU is going to integrate further to correct the shortcomings of the EMU (e.g. by mutualizing debt and establishing a fully fledged banking union) or disintegrate (starting with a euro implosion). Without a fully functioning EMU and in the absence of a banking union and mutualized debt, the business community in the Southern periphery of Europe will suffer more and more from expensive and difficult access to credit. This is so evident. The EU core says that the periphery needs to be more competitive but in order to regain competitiveness business in the periphery need vibrant internal markets, state subsidies/incentives and quick and fairly priced credit. At the moment these conditions are almost an utopia. Therefore little wonders the ever growing divide between the core and the periphery.
As Harry Dexter White once said " trade will bring Nations closer", but this is exactly the contrary of today's trend in Europe where every other government/business is looking for overseas markets and EU intra-trade is dwindling.
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Jose araujo May 15, 2013

OK, this is a good first step, but still fails to address the main problem, the competitive difference between Euro countries. More protectionism is needed for this countries and to some extent more control on capital movements. Differential VAT on national and Euro goods is needed to protect this economies. The lifting of Euro regulation on some areas to reduce the cost of doing business, etc etc.. But we should start somewhere and the Euro-bonds would be a good start.
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Mark Pitts May 13, 2013

Fiscal union without political union would inflame the crisis, because so much more would be at stake. Without political institutions that can resolve the inevitable conflicts, it cannot work.
- Carol Maczinsky May 15, 2013
  
  That implies that principles and agreements are kept. the Schäuble proposal tested that. They are unwilling to give competences to Brussels to control their fiscal spending. In other words they are not willing to keep their agreements. Means, they are not trustworthy. We see all the immature blame games againt restoration of trust that demonstrate what corrupt, unprincipled cowards they elected to govern them.
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- Zsolt Hermann May 13, 2013
  
  I fully agree with you.
  We exist in an integral system, meaning humanity evolved into such a network where each and every individual, nation is connected to everybody else and we fully depend on each other even for our basic necessities.
  In an integral system there exists no partial union.
  Either all elements are fully interconnected in a mutually complementing way and then the system works optimally, or all elements break apart causing the destruction of the whole system.
  What Europe is doing is proving this point, as they try to force a partial union, partial connection within the integral system.
  As a result, regardless of how stubbornly they are trying the experiment is falling apart threatening with very unpredictable, probably very violent consequences.
  The alternative of a united Europe is extremists policies, isolation and war.
  The truth is we have no free choice in the matter.
  Our choice is if we go through the inevitable changes in full awareness, in a proactive way changing our attitude, the relationships in between us, building the necessary mutually responsible and complementing system foregoing the problems, or we will be beaten to it by unprecedented suffering.
  The most important thing history shows us, as long as we continue evolving in an instinctive, "natural" manner, humanity is never tired of trying the same costly mistakes, causing increasing level of destruction and loss each time.
  It is time we rise above our inherent nature, our egoistic, selfish instincts and try a new path by understanding ourselves and the system we exist in.
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Massimo GIANNINI May 13, 2013

Germany will be compelled sooner or later to accept a) Eurobonds b) some forms of mutualisation of debt. Eurobonds will have to be used for a) EU budget b) EU projects (that is public investments) c) refinance the sovereign debts (below the 60%). You will have noted that “synthetic” or proxy EU bonds already exist in the ECB budget via its operations. Launching Eurobonds will be just a matter to go beyond the European Stability Mechanism. Appropriate compensation facilities could be set up among countries to take account also of interest rate spreads.
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Eric West May 13, 2013

On what basis do you support the claim that a break up of the euro would have "devastating consequences". It seems likely that a German exit, which would be followed by an Austrian and Benelux exit, would result in a perfectly manageable dissolution and, indeed, this clearly remains the best option for the people of Europe. Mutualisation of debt will simply sustain the North/South divide which, as we are already seeing, is leading to a steady migration from the latter to the former.
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Marco Cattaneo May 10, 2013

Debt mutualization wouldn't solve competitivity differences. It would perpetuate the intra-eurozone split to create a situation similar to the Italian North / South divide (and to England vs Scotland, Flanders vs Walloon, West vs East Germany etc.) Even more important, Germany is ABSOLUTELY NOT available to consider it. The eurocrisis solution requires reforming the euro monetary system to reintroduce flexibility on a country basis. It can be done without breaking up the euro: http://bastaconleurocrisi.blogspot.it/2013/01/tax-credit-certificates-tcc-tool-to.html
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João Miguel Ejarque May 10, 2013

Currently the fraction of debt that can be mutualized is 0 and yet that still does not motivate governments to maintain sound public finances...
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Craig Hardt May 9, 2013

It would seem that this proposal, while beneficial for Europe as single, monolithic entity, would be highly undesirable for nations with strong economies like Germany.While the resulting turmoil if the Euro were to collapse would cause some pain in strong Eurozone countries, pooling their debt with the debt of other countries would also cause pain. Further, it would diminish the sovereignty of these countries and inextricably link their economic and political future to countries with different histories, priorities, and economic situations. While it might save the Euro, if this is the only solution to European economic woes it seems more likely the Euro will soon be gone.
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