Хаотическое рождение Южного Судана

МАДРИД. Всеобъемлющее мирное соглашение (CPA), которое было достигнуто в 2005 году между в основном христианским южным Суданом и мусульманским севером страны, положило конец одной из самых кровавых гражданских войн современности. Длившаяся 22 год, эта война унесла жизни более двух миллионов человек. Сейчас CPA предстоит пройти самый важный тест: референдум о независимости Юга, назначенный на 9 января.

Соседи Судана и другие страны крайне заинтересованы в том, родится или нет новая страна в одном из самых стратегически чувствительных регионов мира. Решение жизненно важных вопросов находится под угрозой: борьба за нефть; значительное присутствие Китая в Судане; желание Запада видеть, как христианское государство разрывает соседство мусульманских режимов – с последующей угрозой исламского радикализма ‑ в регионе; региональное распределение вод Нила; и возможность того, что независимость Юга может привести к тотальному расчленению Судана вдоль линий, разделяющих страну по этническому и религиозному признаку.

Факт того, что Омар аль-Башир, президент Судана, не особенно стремится согласиться с планом Организации Объединенных Наций усилить силы по сохранению мира в стране перед референдумом, вызывает обеспокоенность по поводу его намерений. Он, конечно, был бы счастлив отложить голосование – и, если его все-таки проведут, оспорить его законность.

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