Le printemps arabe des nations ?

JÉRUSALEM – Deux phénomènes se dessinent au Moyen-Orient depuis le printemps arabe ; l'un d'entre eux est déjà là, et l'autre est en devenir. Ce qui est arrivé est une première dans l'histoire moderne arabe, des régimes et des dirigeants autoritaires se sont faits renversés, ou sérieusement défiés, par des manifestations populaires, et non, comme dans le passé, par des coups militaires.

Ce qui ne s'est pas encore produit pourrait bien être aussi important que les événements déjà vécus. Même si les dictateurs associés aux juntes militaires ont été contestés du jour au lendemain, le printemps arabe ne s'est jamais vraiment rendu jusqu'aux monarchies conservatrices de la région. Les chefs des dynasties du Maroc, de la Jordanie, de l'Arabie saoudite et des États du Golfe (à l'exception de Bahreïn) demeurent plus ou moins fermement en selle. Pourtant, le régime saoudien est, sur beaucoup d'aspects du moins, beaucoup plus oppressif que ne l'étaient les anciens régimes égyptiens et tunisiens.

Bien sûr, la rente pétrolière aide au maintien de l'autocratie, mais ce facteur ne joue pas au Maroc et en Jordanie. Il semble que ces monarchies jouissent d'une forme d'autorité traditionnelle que les dirigeants nationalistes séculaires de la région n'ont jamais eue. En tant que descendants du Prophète, le roi du Maroc et le roi de Jordanie, ou en tant que gardiens des lieux saints de La Mecque et de Médine, comme en Arabie saoudite, les dirigeants de ces pays ont hérité d'une légitimité directement liée à l'islam.

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