Paul Lachine

Die amerikanische Konjunkturerholung

NEWPORT BEACH: Die Vereinigten Staaten haben eine beschwerliche Interventions- und Sanierungsphase durchlaufen, seit die globale Finanzkrise sie 2008 in das wirtschaftliche Äquivalent der Notaufnahme schickte. Sie wurden dann von der Intensivstation auf die Genesungsstation verlegt und erst jüngst aus dem Krankenhaus entlassen. Die Frage ist nun, ob die US-Volkswirtschaft inzwischen soweit ist, nicht nur wieder selbstständig zu gehen, sondern sogar zu laufen und zu sprinten. Die Antwort wird einen starken Einfluss auf die weltwirtschaftlichen Aussichten haben.

Man vergisst allzu leicht, wie kritisch die Lage im vierten Quartal 2008 und im ersten Quartal 2009 war. Nach dem „abrupten Stillstand“ in vielen Bereichen der US-Volkswirtschaft waren diese am Zusammenbrechen oder funktionierten nicht mehr – um die medizinische Metapher fortzuführen: Selbst die lebenswichtigsten Organe waren bedroht.

Die Wirtschaftsaktivität brach ein. Die Arbeitslosigkeit schoss in die Höhe. Die Kreditvergabe kam zum Erliegen. Die Banken standen am Rande des Konkurses und der Verstaatlichung. Der internationale Handel war gestört. Die Ungleichheit bei Einkommen und Vermögen wuchs. Und ein allgemeines Gefühl von Furcht und Unsicherheit hinderte die wenigen gesunden Bereiche der Volkswirtschaft an Neueinstellungen, Investitionen und Expansionsmaßnahmen nennenswerten Umfangs.

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