Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006. He has also served as a member of the Advisory Committee of National Planning of the Commission of National Development and Reform of the PRC.
北京——理论上,发展中国家的资本流入和流出之差应该为正——它们应该是资本净进口国,余额应等于经常项目赤字。但是,自从1997—1998年亚洲金融危机以来,许多东亚国家一直拥有着经常项目盈余,成了资本净出口国。
更奇怪的是,尽管它们是资本净出口国,却有着金融(资本)项目盈余。换句话说,这些国家不仅借出了自己从经常项目盈余中赚得的钱,还把它们从资本项目盈余中借来的钱也借出去了——主要是借给美国。结果,东亚国家现在积累了巨大的以美国国债为形式的外汇储备。
中国尽管吸引着大量的外国直接投资(FDI),但其所购入的美国政府债券数量要更大。2008年,美国公司在中国的FDI平均回报率为33%,而中国的美国国债投资平均回报率只有3—4%。因此,为何中国要把这么多储蓄投资在低回报的美国国债上,而不投资于高回报的国内项目?
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