认真对待裁军问题

墨尔本——

人们有时候会忘记这个故事:叫喊着狼来了的孩子最终会被狼吃掉。是的,自从65年前的广岛长崎事件之后,再没有发生过核武器袭击;而且,冷战的紧张局势也过去很久,决策人和社会公众大都忘记什么末世论,对这些武器的危险视而不见,他们将削减和销毁核武的努力看作是一种徒劳的良好愿望。

但事实上,之所以这样纯粹是一种运气——而不是政治治理,良好的专业管理,或是什么核武器体系的特有稳定性——让我们长期一直没有遭受毁灭性的灾难。目前,全球仍有23,000枚核武器(相对于150,000个广岛当量),其中7,000枚已经部署,超过2,000枚处于高度激发预警状态。当然,我们不能认为我们的运气永远会这么好。

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