Syrian fighter in Damscus Amer Almohipany/ZumaPress

La cuenta regresiva final de Siria

TEL AVIV – Una serie de derrotas cruciales del ejército sirio han echado por tierra cualquier ilusión de que el gobierno de Damasco ejerciera el control de su país. Al dispersar sus fuerzas de manera inconsistente por toda Siria, el presidente Bashar al-Assad redujo drásticamente su capacidad para ganar batallas decisivas, y ahora se ve obligado a evacuar grandes zonas del país para concentrar su ejército alrededor de Damasco y el enclave Alawi en el noroeste. A medida que se vuelve evidente que Assad probablemente pierda la guerra, sus aliados más estrechos -así como las potencias mundiales y los actores regionales- están empezando a planear la jugada final. 

A fines de mayo, el líder de Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, ofreció un discurso que revelaba mucho sobre el impacto de la guerra siria en su organización. "La amenaza que enfrentamos es existencial", dijo Nasrallah. "Ahora tenemos tres opciones: expandir la guerra y luchar mucho más de lo que hemos combatido en los últimos cuatro años, capitular y ser masacrados o dispersarnos por el mundo y caminar humillados y sin objetivos, de catástrofe en catástrofe".

Más de 3.000 combatientes de Hezbollah han muerto en Siria y otros 4.000 resultaron heridos. Militantes sirios, entre ellos combatientes del Estado Islámico, se infiltraron en el Líbano, amenazando con reavivar la guerra ética del país y minando la legitimidad de Hezbollah como garante de su seguridad. La caída de Assad le negaría a la organización su logística vital en el interior del país, tornándola vulnerable a los desafíos planteados por las milicias sunitas insurgentes.

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