Syrian fighter in Damscus Amer Almohipany/ZumaPress

Compte à rebours final en Syrie

TEL AVIV – Une série de défaites cruciales de l'armée syrienne a mis fin aux dernières illusions selon lesquelles le gouvernement de Damas dirigerait encore le pays. En dispersant ses armées de manière très éparse à travers la Syrie, le Président Bachar el-Assad a considérablement réduit sa capacité de gagner des batailles décisives et est maintenant forcé d'évacuer de larges zones du pays pour concentrer son armée autour de Damas et de l'enclave alaouite au Nord-Ouest. Comme il paraît clair qu'Assad va sûrement perdre la guerre, ses plus proches alliés (ainsi que les puissances mondiales et les acteurs de la région), commencent à prévoir la fin de partie.

Fin mai, le chef du Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah a fait un discours qui en dit long sur l'impact de la guerre de Syrie sur son organisation : « La menace à laquelle nous faisons face est existentielle, a déclaré Nasrallah. Il nous reste à présent trois options : étendre la guerre et nous battre beaucoup plus qu'au cours des quatre dernières années, capituler et être massacrés ou nous disperser à travers le monde, humiliés et sans but, de catastrophe en catastrophe. »

Plus de 3 000 combattants du Hezbollah sont morts en Syrie et 4 000 autres ont été blessés. Les militants syriens, y compris les combattants de l'État islamique, sont entrés au Liban et menacent de raviver la guerre ethnique dans le pays et de saper la légitimité du Hezbollah comme garant de sa sécurité. La chute d'Assad risque de priver l'organisation sa base arrière logistique vitale en Syrie, le rendant ainsi vulnérable aux défis des milices sunnites insurgées.

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