Aumentar el tamaño del FMI es un error

CAMBRIDGE – Al irradiarse la crisis financiera mundial de las economías desarrolladas a los mercados emergentes, no sólo está asolando economías mal gestionadas, como, por ejemplo, Venezuela, Rusia y la Argentina. La crisis está afectando también a países como el Brasil, Corea y Sudáfrica, que parecían haber logrado avances importantes y duraderos hacia la estabilidad macroeconómica. Por esa razón, la futura configuración del Fondo Monetario Internacional está pasando rápidamente a ocupar uno de los primeros puestos del programa de los dirigentes mundiales, cuando se preparan para reunirse en Washington a mediados de noviembre con vistas a examinar el futuro del sistema financiero mundial.

Hace muy poco, el FMI parecía relegado a un período duradero de irrelevancia por no haber modernizado ni su eurocéntrica representación política ni sus arcanos servicios de préstamo de gobierno a gobierno. De repente, el Fondo ha pasado al centro del escenario como el único organismo aparentemente capacitado para detener la viciosa espiral descendente de que actualmente son presa los valores y los bonos de los mercados emergentes.

Los dirigentes mundiales deben alegrarse de que el FMI esté dispuesto a tomar la iniciativa en la próxima fase de la crisis financiera mundial, aun cuando sus recursos para préstamos de unos 250.000 millones de dólares son inadecuados para contener la marcha actual de los mercados emergentes. Tan sólo las empresas de dichos mercados tendrán que afrontar vencimientos por valor de centenares de miles de millones de dólares durante los doce próximos meses, mucho más de lo que pueden cubrir las reservas de sus gobiernos, si no se normalizan los mercados de crédito.

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