El momento de contar historias para la economía mundial

NEW HAVEN – Desde el momento en que llegaron a su punto más bajo a comienzos de marzo, todos los mercados de valores más importantes del mundo han subido espectacularmente. Algunos, en particular los de China y del Brasil, alcanzaron sus puntos más bajos el pasado otoño y de nuevo en marzo, antes de recuperarse rápidamente, con lo que en mayo el Bovespa del Brasil había subido el 75 por ciento en comparación con su nivel del final de octubre de 2008 y el Shangai Composite había subido el 54 por ciento, aproximadamente, en el mismo período, pero las noticias de los mercados de valores han sido buenas desde marzo en casi todas partes.

¿Quiere eso decir que la crisis económica mundial está tocando a su fin? ¿Podría ser que todo el mundo se volviera de nuevo optimista al mismo tiempo y pusiese  fin rápidamente a todos nuestros problemas?

Los auges especulativos son impulsados por una realimentación psicológica. La subida de los precios de los valores produce historias de inversores listos que se han hecho ricos. Hay personas que sienten envidia de los éxitos de otros y empiezan a pensar si la subida de los precios augurará nuevas subidas. Surge la tentación de entrar en el mercado, incluso entre personas que más que nada dudan de que el auge vaya a continuar. De modo que el aumento de los precios realimenta nuevas subidas de los precios y el ciclo se repite una y otra vez... durante un tiempo.

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