股市对下跌的担心

NEW HAVEN——在法国巴黎银行宣布它将冻结其旗下的三只基金后,世界股市8月9日的暴跌只不过是又一个市场最近表现得越发动荡或不对称的例子。也就是说,市场更容易遭受突如其来的大跌而非比突然的大涨。截止8月3日前100个交易日的每日股价变化在阿根廷、澳大利亚、巴西、加拿大、中国、法国、德国、印度、日本、韩国、墨西哥、美国和英国都呈现出不寻常的负偏态。

比如说,美国7月份的标准普尔指数涨跌幅超过1%的天数中,下跌的有6天,而上涨的只有3天。而6月份,下跌超过1%的为4天,上涨超过1%的为2天。再往前,2007年2月27日暴跌了3.5%,却没有像样的反弹。

2月27日的下跌是从上证综合指数单日暴跌8.8%开始的,因为有消息说中国政府有可能征收更高的资本利得税。本来这则消息只与中国有关,但是在那里的暴跌引发了席卷全世界的下跌。比如,巴西的BOVESPA指数2月27日下跌了6.6%,而印度的BSE指数第二天跌去了4%。随后市场出现了缓慢的反弹。

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