Paul Lachine

Estados de riesgo

LONDRES -- La Gran Recesión del período 2008-2009 fue desencadenada por una excesiva acumulación de deuda y apalancamiento por parte de las familias, las entidades financieras e incluso el sector empresarial en muchas economías avanzadas. Mientras que se habla mucho de desapalancamiento a medida que la crisis va remitiendo, la realidad es que la deuda del sector privado se ha estabilizado en niveles muy altos.

En cambio, a consecuencia del estímulo fiscal y la socialización de parte de las pérdidas del sector privado, ahora hay un reapalancamiento en masa del sector público. Se ven déficits de más del 10 por ciento del PIB en muchas economías avanzadas y se espera que los coeficientes deuda-PIB aumenten marcadamente... en algunos casos hasta duplicarse en los próximos años.

Como demuestra el nuevo libro de Carmen Reinhart y Ken Rogoff, This Time is Different (“Esta vez es diferente”), semejantes crisis en los balances generales han originado históricamente recuperaciones lentas, anémicas e inferiores a la tendencia normal durante muchos años. Los problemas de la deuda soberana son otra posibilidad nada despreciable, en vista del reapalancamiento en masa del sector público.

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