Paul Lachine

Les états du risque

LONDRES – La Grande Récession de 2008-2009 fut provoquée par une accumulation excessive des niveaux d’endettements et d’emprunts des agents privés, des institutions financières et même des entreprises dans de nombreuses économies avancées. A l’heure où il est beaucoup question de désendettement au fur et à mesure que la crise faiblit, la réalité n’en reste pas moins que les ratios d’endettements du secteur privé se sont stabilisés à des niveaux très élevés.

Par contre, les plans de relance budgétaire et la socialisation d’une partie des pertes du secteur privé se traduisent aujourd’hui par un alourdissement conséquent de l’endettement des finances publiques. De nombreuses économies avancées ont des déficits supérieurs à 10% de leur PIB et les rapports dette/PIB devraient augmenter fortement, dans certains cas même doubler, dans les prochaines années.

Comme le démontre le dernier ouvrage de Carmen Reinhart et Ken Rogoff, This Time is Different ( Cette fois c’est différent, ndt), de tels bilans en temps de crise ont traditionnellement entrainé des reprises plus lentes, plus molles et baissières pendant de longues années. Les problèmes liés à la dette souveraine constituent aussi une autre éventualité compte tenu de l’alourdissement de l’endettement des finances publiques.

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