Paul Lachine

Pensar con más inteligencia sobre el cambio climático

COPENHAGUE – Los políticos y comentaristas manifiestan un comprensible pesimismo acerca de las posibilidades de que se logre un acuerdo internacional sobre las reducciones a las emisiones de carbono en la cumbre de las Naciones Unidas que se realizará en México en diciembre. No se ha resuelto nada desde el fracaso de las conversaciones de Copenhague el año pasado. Afortunadamente, los resultados de estudios recientes apuntan a una manera más inteligente de enfrentar el problema.

Ya no hay desacuerdos importantes acerca de la realidad del calentamiento global. Las interrogantes cruciales tienen relación con el aspecto económico de nuestra respuesta... pero este debate puede ser igual de acalorado. Desde que publicara El ecologista escéptico en 2001, siempre he reconocido que el calentamiento global causado por el hombre es real. Sin embargo, los activistas me han tildado una y otra vez de "negacionista del cambio climático". Esto no se debe a que haya sugerido nunca que los fundamentos científicos del cambio climático estén equivocados, sino más bien a su rabia y frustración por mi insistencia de que no tiene sentido aplicar reducciones drásticas a las emisiones de carbono.

El Centro del Consenso de Copenhague  - think tank del que soy director- pidió hace poco a un gran número de economistas del clima que exploraran los costes y beneficios de diferentes respuestas al calentamiento global. Al mismo tiempo, convocamos a un segundo grupo de economistas, iguales de destacados y entre los que se incluían tres premios Nobel, para examinar todos los estudios y clasificar las propuestas en orden de deseabilidad. Cambridge University Press esta publicando sus investigaciones y conclusiones este mes, bajo el título Smart Solutions to Climate Change (Soluciones inteligentes al cambio climático).

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