Paul Lachine

气候变化的明智思维

发自哥本哈根——对于今年11月在墨西哥联合国峰会上达成全球碳排放削减协议的可能性,无论是政治家还是新闻评论员都感到悲观,这是可以理解的。自哥本哈根气候峰会落幕以来,我们就没有实现任何进展。但幸运的是,最近的研究为我们指明了一条应对气候变化的更明智之路。

全球变暖的存在已经被主流民意都所认可,而问题的关键则是经济方面(对于这一点的谈论正逐渐升温)。自从2001年出版了《持怀疑论的环保主义者》一书以来,经常有人跟我说人为的气候变化是确实存在的。但环保分子却一直把我定义为“气候变化否定论者”。这不但是因为我曾经指出关于全球变暖的基本研究方法是错的,也更因为他们对我一直坚持的观点——大幅度削减碳排放的做法是错误的——既感到恼火,又觉得沮丧。

而由我所主持的一个智库机构——哥本哈根共识研究中心——最近集中了一大批顶尖气候经济学家来研究不同全球变暖对策的优劣之处。与此同时,我们还召集了包括诺贝尔奖得主在内的一批优秀经济学家来讨论所有的研究并按优劣做出排位。剑桥大学出版社将在本月发表他们的研究成果,书名就叫《气候变化的明智方案》

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