British pound Max Mumby/Indigo

الخروج البريطاني والجنيه الذي في جيبك

بيركلي ــ بدأت النتائج المبكرة للخروج البريطاني تتوالى، وهي على عكس ما ردده بعض المراقبين ليست طيبة. ففي يوليو/ تموز، عقب الاستفتاء مباشرة، انهارت ثقة المستهلك بأسرع معدل على الإطلاق منذ عام 1990. وانخفضت استطلاعات التصنيع والبناء بشكل كبير. وفي حين كانت بيانات أغسطس/آب أفضل، فمن المبكر للغاية أن نجزم بأن التحسن لم يكن مجرد "ارتداد خادع".

في عالَم ما بعد الاستفتاء المقلوب رأسا على عقب، كان الخبر الوحيد السار هبوط قيمة الجنية الإسترليني في سوق الصرف الأجنبي. ذلك أن انخفاض سعر الصرف من شأنه أن يجعل الصادرات البريطانية أكثر قدرة على المنافسة. وفي مواجهة ارتفاع أسعار الواردات، سوف يحول المستهلكون إنفاقهم نحو السلع المحلية. وهذا أيضا من شأنه أن يعطي دَفعة للاقتصاد البريطاني.

السؤال الآن يدور حول مدى قوة هذه الدَفعة. يحذر المتشككون من اعتماد بريطانيا بشكل كبير على الصادرات من الخدمات المالية، والتي لا تتسم بالحساسية للأسعار بشكل خاص، ويزعمون أن مجال نمو الصادرات السلعية محدود بفِعل الطلب العالمي المتراجع.

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