土耳其的伊朗战略

伊斯坦布尔—继伊朗外交部长扎里夫(Javad Zarif)最近访问海湾国家后,总统鲁哈尼将在下个月访问土耳其,继续伊斯兰共和国的魅力攻势。与伊朗的大部分阿拉伯邻国不同,土耳其旗帜鲜明地欢迎上个月伊朗与P5+1(联合国安理会五大常任理事国加上德国)达成的临时和协议。但土耳其决策者强烈地感觉到,这一协议可能逆转中东地区脆弱的实力平衡。

在土耳其看来,这一核协议如能成功实施并在六个月后永久化,将能打消一个巨大的安全顾虑。总理埃尔多安的政府不想面对有核的伊朗,担心在经历了几百年的平等关系后,土耳其与伊斯兰共和国将呈现不对称的实力关系。

但土耳其也不想对伊朗实施军事干预。土耳其认为,军事打击只能给地区稳定和安全带来更多问题。这也是土耳其决策者一直呼吁通过外交手段解决伊朗问题的原因,最近的协议正是这一努力的一个成果。

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