Zijn de Chinese banken als volgende aan de beurt?

WASHINGTON, DC – Amerika’s windhoos aan dysfunctionele politiek en de dan-weer-wel dan-weer-niet crisis in de eurozone lijken op het eerste gezicht een gouden mogelijkheid voor China op te leveren. Zeker, de malaise in de VS en Europa zullen waarschijnlijk de Chinese export raken, maar op de langere termijn wil China zijn economie toch heroriënteren op binnenlandse consumptie. Met de Tea Party vleugel van de Amerikaanse Republikeinse Partij die investeerders weg doet schrikken van de dollar, kan de interesse in het potentieel van de Chinese renminbi als internationale reserve alleen maar groeien.

Dit zal China helpen om meer investeerders aan te trekken die hun portfolio’s willen diversifiëren. De Chinese overheidsschuld zal dan een belangrijk mondiaal referentiekader qua activa worden, wat de private sector zou moeten helpen om fondsen aan te trekken op redelijke voorwaarden, terwijl de overheersing van de Federal Reserve van de VS in het bepalen van de wereldwijde monetaire toestand waarschijnlijk kleiner zou worden. De decennia oude verschuiving naar een multipolaire wereld qua productie zou ons naar een multipolaire wereld voor valuta kunnen leiden, met de renminbi als belangrijke speler.

Maar ondanks de unieke historie en de huidige voordelen heeft China een zwakte die vrijwel gelijk is aan die zwakte die zoveel problemen heeft veroorzaakt in de VS en de EU; grote banken die de neiging hebben onvoorzichtig te zijn. De meest recente zetten van China suggereren dat, terwijl het land nu mag genieten van een aantal jaren van meer op de voorgrond treden, het aanmoedigen van zijn financiële instituties om mondiaal te gaan opereren waarschijnlijk tot serieuze problemen zal leiden.

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