¿Se debe intervenir en Siria?

WASHINGTON, DC – Más que cualquier otro suceso de la primavera árabe, el caos en Siria se ha traducido en graves dificultades para los responsables del diseño de políticas occidentales. Así como Siria se compone de una sociedad más compleja respecto de los otros países árabes, que actualmente están sumidos en una transición política, del mismo modo sus relaciones externas son más complicadas. En consecuencia, todo intento decisivo de intervenir militarmente sería no solo difícil sino extremadamente riesgoso.

La actuación predominante de Siria en Líbano, incluso después de haber retirado sus fuerzas de ocupación de dicho país, es tan solo una complicación. Otra, es el gobierno minoritario alawita en un país con una mayoría sunita, lo que convierte a Siria en un representante del Irán chiita en el mundo árabe sunita. Otros grupos minoritarios sirios –los chiitas no alawitas, los cristianos ortodoxos y católicos y los drusos– están vinculados con países vecinos y actores regionales, que atraen un intenso interés del exterior e, incluso, un respaldo activo. Turquía, Arabia Saudita y Rusia tienen intereses estratégicos y vínculos con diversos grupos en Siria.

Por supuesto, los Estados Unidos y sus aliados de la OTAN preferirían el surgimiento de un régimen democrático al estilo occidental en Siria. No obstante, dada la compleja sociedad del país y sus vínculos externos, Occidente debería conformarse con un gobierno estable no dominado por Rusia o Irán, y sin conflictos militares con sus vecinos, incluido Israel.

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