Le piège stratégique des négociations

TEL AVIV – Le processus de paix israélien, systématiquement entravé par des différences irréconciliables entre les parties en présence, a toujours dépendu du contexte stratégique régional. N’est-il pas né en effet au lendemain de la première guerre du Golfe, facilité ensuite par les conséquences régionales de la guerre froide. À l’heure actuelle, ce processus est façonné par ces deux dynamiques régionales majeures que constituent ledit Printemps arabe et l’accord nucléaire iranien.

Les efforts autour de cet accord iranien ont été le théâtre des crises de confiance les plus graves qui aient jamais marqué les relations entre les États-Unis et leurs alliés au Moyen-Orient. N’ayant pourtant d’autre choix, Israël comme les États arabes auront désormais des difficultés à faire confiance aux engagements futurs des États-Unis autour de leur sécurité. Aux yeux du Premier ministre israélien Benyamin Netanyahou, le président américain Barack Obama a trahi Israël en sacrifiant l’ancien président égyptien Hosni Moubarak, et ouvert la voie à l’ascension des Frères musulmans jusqu’au pouvoir. Et voici que l’Amérique retourne le couteau dans la plaie en parvenant à un accord avec l’Iran, semble-t-il dans le dos de Netanyahou.

L’approche stratégique conventionnelle d’Israël reposait sur l’équation « Bushehr contre Yitzhar » – à savoir un consentement à démanteler les colonies de Cisjordanie à condition qu’il en aille de même pour les centrifugeuses iraniennes de Bushehr. Du point de vue de Netanyahou, cette condition n’est pas remplie.

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