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战略陷阱中的谈判

Feb 3, 2014 Shlomo Ben-Ami

特拉维夫—因为双方不可调和的分歧而饱受掣肘的以色列-巴勒斯坦和平进程永远需要看地区战略环境的颜色。毕竟，这一进程诞生于第一次海湾战争，并受冷战结束的地区后果成长。近期以来，这一进程受两大地区动态影像，即所谓的阿拉伯之春和伊朗核协议。

伊朗核协议已成为美国及其中东盟友之间最严重的信任危机之一。尽管以色列和阿拉伯国家别无选择，但要让它们相信未来美国会保护它们的安全业十分困难。对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡来说，美国总统奥巴马在牺牲掉埃及前总统穆巴拉克并为穆斯林兄弟会的掌权扫清障碍时已经背叛了以色列。如今他又捅了以色列第二刀，背着内塔尼亚胡与伊朗达成了协议。

以色列的传统战略智慧的基础是“布什尔对伊扎尔”（Bushehr versus Yitzhar），即，只要布什尔的伊朗离心机拆掉，以色列就准备拆掉约旦河西岸的定居点。

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Rik Rijs Feb 11, 2014

Netanyahu is steadily continuing his conquest of a 'holy land' by throwing Palestinians out of their houses and taking their land. In the name of some god. For Israelis this is seen as a succes. And the US is strongly supporting this. None of the Israel supporters can say: wir haben es nicht gewusst.
hari naidu Feb 4, 2014

Ben-Ami is intuitively trapping himself by demonstrating the (hitherto) political power of Israeli (AIPAC) lobby on The Hill by introducing S. 1881: Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013 in which neocons of Israel/Bibi regime demand not only total dismantling of Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme under NPT but they also legally invoke war powers of US Congress to militarily support Israel (IDF) if it decides to bomb Iran….

+59 US Senators supporting S.1881 sanctions have now one-by-one started rescinding their political support and instead support Obama/Kerry diplomacy to secure a final nuclear agreement with Iran under aegis of IAEA/NPT safeguards provisions. The next round of P5+1 will take place in Vienna (IAEA Headquarters).

At the recently concluded MSC(Munich) security conference Iran Foreign Minister declared it’d be a political disaster if a permanent diplomatic solution was not agreed upon by P5+1 in Vienna. And he also declared Iran will compromise to find a permanent solution under NPT/IAEA….

Meanwhile Bibi and some of his Cabinet Ministers are making all sorts of noise against Kerry’s *messianic* diplomacy to conclude a two-state solution by next April. And if you read what Abbas/Palestine is declaring on deployment of NATO forces in Jordan Valley to enforce a neutral zone of peace…..it now seems it’s a matter of Kerry’s fixed deadline before Palestine State sovereignty is finally agreed by Israeli/Palestine negotiators.

First, Russia agrees to remove Syrian chemical weapons…by March. Second, P5+1 are on track to conclude a nuclear deal with Iran in Vienna. Third, Bibi and his neocons are finally feeling the noose of Kerry’s diplomacy trapping them…and Obama is now scheduled (March) to visit Saudi Arabia to make sure Arabs don’t sabotage evolution of Palestinian State.

So, the real issue is who is (now) strategically trapped and why?

http://prosyn.org/7Nu0jLp/zh;

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战略陷阱中的谈判

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