战略陷阱中的谈判

特拉维夫—因为双方不可调和的分歧而饱受掣肘的以色列-巴勒斯坦和平进程永远需要看地区战略环境的颜色。毕竟,这一进程诞生于第一次海湾战争,并受冷战结束的地区后果成长。近期以来,这一进程受两大地区动态影像,即所谓的阿拉伯之春和伊朗核协议。

伊朗核协议已成为美国及其中东盟友之间最严重的信任危机之一。尽管以色列和阿拉伯国家别无选择,但要让它们相信未来美国会保护它们的安全业十分困难。对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡来说,美国总统奥巴马在牺牲掉埃及前总统穆巴拉克并为穆斯林兄弟会的掌权扫清障碍时已经背叛了以色列。如今他又捅了以色列第二刀,背着内塔尼亚胡与伊朗达成了协议。

以色列的传统战略智慧的基础是“布什尔对伊扎尔”(Bushehr versus Yitzhar),即,只要布什尔的伊朗离心机拆掉,以色列就准备拆掉约旦河西岸的定居点。

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