Paul Lachine

Спасая египетскую революцию

То, что во Франции началось в 1789 году как восстание среднего класса в союзе с санкюлотами, закончилось возвращением монархии в форме диктатуры Наполеона. Совсем недавно первая волна иранской революции под председательством Абольхасана Банисадра отнюдь не была исключительно исламистской; вторая волна во главе с аятоллой Хомейни была именно такой.

Вопрос для Египта заключается в том, действительно ли повестка дня по-настоящему плюралистической демократии ‑ провозглашенная авангардом молодых протестующих на площади Тахрир, самоуполномоченного поколения Facebook и Twitter ‑ сможет преодолеть устойчивые силы прошлого. В действительности, в соответствии с опросом исследовательского центра Pew Research Center, только 5,5% населения имеет доступ к Facebook, в то время как 95% хотят, чтобы ислам играл важную роль в политике, 80% считают, что прелюбодеев нужно забрасывать камнями, 45% практически неграмотны, а 40% живут менее чем на 2 доллара США в день.

В идеале, новый демократический порядок должен основываться на общей платформе, принятой силами перемен, как светских, так и исламских, а также на пакте переходного периода между этими силами и представителями старой системы, в первую очередь, с армией. В действительности, одна из странных черт египетской революции заключается в том, что сегодня она работает под исключительной опекой консервативной армии.

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