Paul Lachine

Die Rettung der ägyptischen Revolution

TEL AVIV – Immer wieder in der Geschichte haben Revolutionen ihre Kinder verschlungen. Was sie letztlich bewirkten, war selten in Übereinstimmung mit den Absichten ihrer ursprünglichen Initiatoren. Allzu oft werden Revolutionen von einer zweiten Welle gekapert, die sie entweder konservativer oder radikaler machen, als es die Initiatoren der Veränderung im Sinn hatten.

Was 1789 in Frankreich als Aufstand des Bürgertums gemeinsam mit den sans culottes begann, endete mit der Rückkehr der Monarchie in Form der Diktatur Napoleons. Die erste Welle der iranischen Revolution unter der Leitung von Abolhassan Bani-Sadr war keineswegs ausschließlich islamistisch, im Gegensatz zu der von Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini geführten zweiten Welle.

Für Ägypten stellt sich die Frage, ob die Agenda einer wirklich pluralistischen Demokratie – ausgerufen von den fortschrittlichen jungen Protestierenden, der bewundernswert selbstbestimmten Facebook- und Twitter-Generation – gegen die zähen Kräfte der Vergangenheit bestehen kann. Tatsächlich haben, einer Umfrage des Pew Research Center zufolge, nur 5,5% der Menschen Zugang zu Facebook, während 95% dafür sind, dass der Islam eine Hauptrolle in der Politik spielt. 80% glauben, dass Ehebrecher gesteinigt werden sollten, 45% sind praktisch Analphabeten, und 40% verdienen weniger als 2 US$ pro Tag.

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