Salvar los mercados emergentes

CAMBRIDGE – Si el mundo fuera justo, la mayoría de los mercados emergentes estarían contemplando desde la barrera cómo se hunden las economías avanzadas en la crisis financiera: si no totalmente libres de sus consecuencias, tampoco excesivamente preocupados. Por una vez, lo que ha prendido fuego a los mercados financieros no han sido los excesos de esos países, sino los de Wall Street.

Las posiciones fiscal y exterior de los mercados emergentes han estado más fuertes que nunca, gracias a las duras lecciones aprendidas de su propia historia, propensa a las crisis. Puede incluso que hayamos permitido a esos países cierta medida de schadenfreude respecto de los problemas de los Estados Unidos y otros países ricos, del mismo modo que podemos esperar que los chicos sientan un disfrute perverso al ver a sus padres meterse en los problemas contra los que éstos  avisan tan insistentemente a sus hijos.

En cambio, los mercados emergentes están sufriendo convulsiones financieras de unas proporciones posiblemente sin precedentes. Lo que se teme no es ya que no puedan aislarse, sino que sus economías podrían verse arrastradas a crisis mucho más profundas que las que se vivirán en el epicentro del desastre de las hipotecas de gran riesgo.

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