Sarkozy, euro a bouře na druhou

Čím více francouzský prezident Nicolas Sarkozy útočí na Evropskou centrální banku a silné euro, tím více je kritizován evropskými médii, evropskými ministry financí, představiteli Evropské unie i samotnou ECB. Kritikové mají pravdu. Základní příčinou současné hospodářské slabosti Francie je totiž její nekonkurenceschopnost, a to i v jiných ekonomikách eurozóny, kde euro nehraje roli.

Sarkozyho útoky však nejsou zcela neopodstatněné. Na mezinárodních devizových trzích se totiž schyluje k bouři na druhou, která hrozí katapultovat euro do takových výšin, že ani nejefektivnější exportér eurozóny – Německo – nebude schopen na světových trzích konkurovat. A nedokážou-li němečtí vývozci konkurovat při kurzu 1,50 eur za dolar, jakou šanci mají vývozci francouzští?

Euro získává na hodnotě z několika důvodů. Urychlujícím faktorem je skutečnost, že americká centrální banka (Fed) dramaticky mění názor na sílu ekonomiky USA. Šéf Fedu Ben Bernanke dnes chová mimořádně velké obavy, že problémy na americkém trhu bydlení a hypoték vyvolají recesi, nedojde-li k agresivnímu snížení úrokových sazeb, i kdyby to mělo znamenat určité inflační riziko.

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