Paul Lachine

Wer wird die Defizite der Welt tragen?

SINGAPUR – Heutzutage scheint man überall Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse aufweisen zu wollen. China verfügt seit langem über enorme Überschüsse. Die Eurozone verzeichnet momentan noch größere Überschüsse, da der Umschwung in den südeuropäischen Ländern die langjährigen Überschüsse Deutschlands erhöht. Tatsächlich weisen Länder von Singapur bis Russland riesige Überschüsse auf.

Unterdessen ist das amerikanische Außenhandelsdefizit – das jahrzehntelang zur Aufrechterhaltung der Überschüsse anderswo beitrug – nun geringer als vor dem Jahr 2008, wobei viele Ökonomen argumentieren, dass man nie wieder zu den früheren Werten zurückkehren sollte (der Schiefergasboom macht das in ihren Augen ohnehin unwahrscheinlich). Auch die Finanzmärkte haben deutlich gezeigt, dass die Fähigkeit anderer großer Defizitländer wie Brasilien und Indien zur Aufnahme von Kapitalströmen an ihre Grenzen stößt. Da die Welt ein geschlossenes System darstellt, erhebt sich folgende Frage: Wer wird auf der Welt die Defizite tragen?

Mainstream-Ökonomen glauben, dass die Weltwirtschaft wie eine ausgewogene mechanische Anordnung funktionieren sollte, in der sich Außenhandelsüberschüsse und -defizite mit der Zeit ausgleichen. Doch Phasen globaler wirtschaftlicher Expansion waren praktisch immer von symbiotischen Ungleichgewichten geprägt.

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