Russlands Zukunft und der Westen

Russland sucht erneut eine Rolle als globale Macht und lässt zu diesem Zweck seine Muskeln spielen. Die Signale dieser Veränderung der russischen Außenpolitik haben sich seit Präsident Putins konfrontativer Rede im vergangenen Februar in München unübersehbar gehäuft:

Die russische Flagge auf dem Meeresgrund am Nordpol, um so die russischen Ansprüche auf das Gebiet und die Bodenschätze zu demonstrieren; die Ankündigung des Baus eines eigenen Raketenabwehrsystems und massive Drohungen Richtung Europa wegen der Stationierung eines kleinen amerikanischen Abwehrsystems; der Einschlag einer “verirrten” Rakete oder Bombe in Georgien als Warnsignal an die Regierung in Tiflis und deren westliche Freunde; russische Fernaufklärer im Anflug auf den amerikanischen Militärstützpunkt Guam im Pazifik; die Blockade einer Entscheidung über den Endstatus des Kosovo im VN Sicherheitsrat; ein “Hackerangriff” auf die Computersysteme in Estland. Zudem wiederholte sich mittlerweile jeden Winter die Drohung mit “Problemen” bei der Öl- und Gaslieferungen nach Europa.

Die hohen Öl- und Gaspreise, die globale Selbstschwächung der USA durch das anhaltend aussichtslose Abenteuer im Irak und der Aufstieg Chinas und Indiens haben Moskau ganz offensichtlich zu einer außenpolitischen Wende veranlasst. Zwar handelt es sich dabei noch um keinen grundsätzlichen Wechsel der Strategie, denn bis heute hält die russische Politik an ihrer Grundsatzentscheidung der frühen neunziger Jahre zur Westöffnung Russlands fest. Gleichwohl hat sich der Stil erkennbar weg von der Kooperation hin zur Konfrontation verändert. Und in der Außenpolitik kann, wie die Geschichte lehrt, aus einem Stilwechsel sehr schnell ein Strategiewechsel werden.

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