La Russie et l'Occident

Voulant retrouver le statut de grande puissance, la Russie cherche à impressionner. Après le discours agressif de Poutine à Munich en février dernier, les signes de changement de la politique étrangère russe se sont multipliés.

Depuis, la Russie a planté son drapeau au fond de la mer sous le pole Nord pour appuyer sa revendication relative à l'Arctique et à ses ressources naturelles, elle a annoncé son intention de construire sons propre système de missiles de défense et a réitéré des menaces contre l'Europe à cause du projet de déploiement d'un petit système de défense américain, elle a fait exploser un missile "égaré" en Géorgie à titre d'avertissement au gouvernement de Tbilissi et de ses amis occidentaux, elle a fait survoler ses appareils de surveillance au-dessus de la base militaire américaine de Guam dans l'océan Pacifique, elle a bloqué une décision sur le statut final du Kosovo au Conseil de sécurité et lancé via Internet une attaque contre le système informatique de l'Estonie. Par ailleurs, chaque hiver, l'Europe risque d'être confronté à des problèmes liés aux livraisons de pétrole et de gaz russes.

Le prix élevé du pétrole et du gaz, l'affaiblissement auto-infligé de l'Amérique avec la mésaventure irakienne et la montée en puissance de la Chine et de l'Inde ont manifestement encouragé Moscou à changer de politique étrangère. Aucun des faits mentionnés ne constitue cependant un revirement stratégique, car la Russie continue à adhérer à sa décision première du début des années 1990 de s'ouvrir à l'Occident. Néanmoins, la politique étrangère russe est passée de la coopération à la confrontation. Et comme l'Histoire l'a montré, un changement de style en politique étrangère peut rapidement déboucher sur un changement stratégique.

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