El frágil poder de Rusia

Rusia ha enviado una delegación impresionante al Foro Económico de Davos de este año. Después de tener una importante representación en la época de Boris Yeltsin, el nivel de participantes de Rusia había disminuido desde que Vladimir Putin pasó a ser presidente. Sin embargo, este año los rusos han enviado su equipo de primera y una de las sesiones, en la que hubo una gran concurrencia, se centró en la "Más enérgica política exterior de Rusia".

Con el aumento de los precios de la energía, muchos funcionarios rusos están disfrutando de su renovado poder. En una cena con funcionarios superiores del gobierno y de Gazprom, la gigantesca compañía energética, se me pidió que opinara sobre las relaciones Estados Unidos-Rusia. Dije que los Estados Unidos y Europa se hicieron demasiadas ilusiones sobre la democracia en Rusia en el decenio de 1990 y ahora estaban pasando por una fase de desilusión. Existe preocupación por el futuro de Rusia, sobre cómo utilizará su nuevo poder y sobre cuál sería la mejor respuesta de Occidente.

Una opinión es la de que la política rusa es como un péndulo. Había oscilado demasiado hacia el caos en la época de Yeltsin y ahora, en la época de Putin, ha oscilado demasiado hacia el orden y el control estatal. No ha oscilado de regreso al estalinismo; una mejor metáfora histórica sería la del zarismo. Los observadores debaten sobre si llegará a alcanzar un nuevo equilibrio.

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