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هزيمة روسيا في أوكرانيا تلوح في الأفق

Aug 2, 2022 Simon Johnson

واشنطن العاصمة- من السهل معرفة الخاسر الأكبر من الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا: المدنيون الأوكرانيون، وضحايا جرائم الحرب والإرهاب الصاروخي، والملايين حول العالم الذين يعاون الآن من ارتفاع أسعار المواد الغذائية، لأن روسيا كانت حتى الآونة الأخيرة تمنع شحنات الحبوب الأوكرانية من عبور البحر الأسود (وتشن ضربات على الموانئ الأوكرانية حتى بعد الموافقة على وقف إطلاق النار). ولكن، من المنتصر بالضبط من هذا الصراع الفظيع؟

إن المسئولين الروس يتصرفون كما لو أن الأمور تسير لصالحهم. فهم يتحدثون بعجرفة ويستجيبون لمحاولات الاسترضاء بازدراء. ويهدد وكلاءهم في وسائل الإعلام بتفجير أوروبا يوماً ما، وعندما يُوبخون، فإنهم يهددون بتدمير العالم في اليوم التالي. والآن تقوم روسيا بخنق إمدادات الغاز الطبيعي الموجهة نحو أوروبا، لتفرض بذلك قوتها على جيرانها وكأنها على بعد خطوة فقط من تحقيق النصر.

ولكن كل هذه الأمور مجرد وهم غريب. والواقع هو أن روسيا بدأت تسجل خسائر كبيرة في الحرب سواء من الناحية العسكرية أوالاقتصادية.

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Simon Johnson

Writing for PS since 2007
154 Commentaries

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and a co-chair of the COVID-19 Policy Alliance. He is the co-author (with Jonathan Gruber) of Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream and the co-author (with James Kwak) of 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and The Next Financial Meltdown.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

mohsen eldardiry Aug 12, 2022

I hate to say this; the article is too emotional and lacks substantive evidence.
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Bob Cowley Aug 9, 2022

Should there be a World Policeman Nation (WPN)? It's a problematic concept.
When an ordinary policeman does the wrong thing, his colleagues or his boss will hopefully sort it out. When a chief of police goes astray, it's much harder to deal with. However, the UN's record in ending international conflicts is very poor.
So, it seems that we do need a WPN - and that it has to be the USA (with helpers), not China.
When and if Russia loses the war and Vladimir Putin is deposed, Alexei Navalny might lead that country in a much better direction.
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Alex Aslanidis Aug 9, 2022

Sure, if we freeze time so that things stay the way they are now, that's what probably would happen. Unfortunately, things don't stand still. Pipelines get built, alliances are forged, trade relations develop, technological progress takes plance, and so on. Russia isn't Iran or Venezuela. It produces a heck of a lot of stuff, including advanced technology. So, mostly, this article expresses the writer's desires rather than any cold facts. Considering the US has done the most military interventions since 1890 but the Project Syndicate fraternity never bothered to write anything bad about them, we shouldn't pay much attention to what people like Johnson write.
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Vidvuds Beldavs Aug 7, 2022

Ukraine enjoyed excellent relations with China and many countries in Africa. As survival of a sovereign and democratic Ukraine looks increasingly likely these traditional supporters of Russia will cool there support for Russia which will accelerate the defeat of the present leadership of the Russian Federation. Ukraine's climate scientist Svitlana Krakovska refers to Russia's war against Ukraine as the fossil fuel war -https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/09/ukraine-climate-scientist-russia-invasion-fossil-fuels . Europe's commitment to address climate change is being tested by this war. But victory in the fossil fuel war is necessary for the survival of the EU and industrial civilization.
We can hope for the recovery of Anatoly Chubais from his illness to provide leadership for a new path for Russia to help combat climate change rather than being a principal supplier of fossil fuels. As a supplier of fossil fuels Russia's future on its current path would be as a resource-providing dependent appendage of China. This would be a betrayal of Russia's aspirations to be a major power in the emerging global order.
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Tom Shapiro Aug 7, 2022

It is well to remember that new NATO membership applications require unanimous consent of existing members. Well, despite the occupation and vassal status of Hungry during the Cold War, despite the suppression of the Hungarian Revolution by the USSR in the 1950s, Victor Orban today might not approve the application of Sweden and Finland for membership. Let’s see if President Putin allows special oil exports to Hungary as Europe suffers energy shortages this Winter.
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Robert Johnston Aug 7, 2022

Empires die hard, and every Russian defeat makes them all the more dangerous. They were defeated in Afghanistan so they turned their attention back to the west (and Syria). They will battle on, somewhere.
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Paul Friesen Aug 4, 2022

Seems to me the world is in the process of breaking into two blocks - The "West" and the "Rest". The West is used to world dominance and expects it to continue. This, to me, is highly doubtful. The industrialization of China has changed the world very fundamentally. China is the dominant power in the Rest, just as the U.S. is the dominant power in the West, and its power and wealth are growing while that of the U.S. is shrinking in relative terms.

I am by no means mourning the death of the old world order. The rise of China has improved the fairness of the world, lifting billions out of poverty. The world is still extremely unfair, but it is a bit less unfair, in general, than it used to be. But there are obvious places where problems are building for anyone who, like me, thinks that people should be free, as much as practical, to choose who governs them. I think Ukrainians should have that choice, but I also figure the inhabitants of the Crimea should have it and I doubt if they would choose rule by Ukraine.

I think Ukraine will probably, eventually, push the Russians back. Their backing by the West is still solid. But we should not forget that Russia has its backers too, and that the world order is changing. Using "sanctions" is creating a huge push to create new institutions for trade and finance that are not controlled by the West. This is probably the last time the West will have such power to impose its will.
- Adrian Wu Aug 7, 2022
  
  The Western media has conveniently left out the Western imperialism in the developing world. National boundaries artificially created by the West at the end of their colonial rule in the Middle East, East Asia and Africa continue to create conflict. Autocratic leaders in many of these countries, installed by Western powers, continue to allow their countries' resources to be plundered by Western commercial interests. The real reason Africa and the Indian subcontinent remain poor is because of the centuries of transatlantic slave trade that decimated their working population and the intentional underdevelopment of these countries' infrastructure (any development only served the purpose of facilitating the plunder of their natural resources) and human resources by their colonial masters. This continuation of Western imperialism, a form of neo-colonization, is called the "rule based international order" by the West, which they will do whatever it takes to protect. This is the real reason why they see China as a threat, because China is now ready to challenge the existing order.
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Tony Djohan Aug 3, 2022

Orwellian. If this is what catastrophe looks like, what will victory be? And who is victorious? The West?

These propagandists have irrevocably ruined English words. RIP “defeat” “losing” “catastrophic”.
They would have us believe that Russians can’t sell oil due to lack of Western insurance (which was just walked back by UK)? Indians bought them, refined then sold back to Europe. Freaking Saudi Arabia bought loads, used domestically, and sold all of their own at premium. Who is the sucker in the room?

Russia “lost” because of discount? They still make record profits. And will continue to do so even at less elevated price.

As a bystander, I am NOT rooting for Russia here. But I do recognize a sore loser in denial, consoling self with copium.
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Elizabeth Pula Aug 2, 2022

Before jumping to any light hearted conclusions about the present conflict, Europe may want to refresh itself, especially within the hallowed walls of the EU as to just what occurred for quite a few centuries back around the 1200's and quite a while later:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe_during_Turco-Mongol_rule

A lot of folks like to think world history started sometime after WW1. The real conflict is a bit deeper than that take away of time, especially when it comes to the real story about slavery, which also didn't just pop up onto the world stage before the Civil War in around 1850's or so on the North American continent.
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هزيمة روسيا في أوكرانيا تلوح في الأفق

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