Rusia y la carta de Kosovo

TBLISI – “Mira antes de saltar” es un práctico principio tanto en la vida diaria como en las relaciones internacionales. Y, no obstante, la administración Bush se apresta nuevamente a saltar a lo desconocido. Incluso considerando que todo el mundo piensa que la falta de previsión es la principal causa de la debacle en Iraq, Estados Unidos (con el probable respaldo británico) se está preparando a reconocer unilateralmente la independencia de Kosovo, sin importarle sus consecuencias para Europa ni el resto del mundo.

Kosovo ha sido administrada desde 1999 por una misión de las Naciones Unidas protegida por tropas de la OTAN, aunque formalmente sigue siendo parte de Serbia. Sin embargo, con la mayoría albana de Kosovo exigiendo su propio estado y la negativa de Rusia a reconocer el plan del mediador de la ONU Martti Ahtisaari para una independencia condicional, Estados Unidos se está aprestando a ir por su cuenta. En lugar en pensar en lo que Ahtisaari consideró impensable, la división de Kosovo -destinando una pequeña parte del norte a Serbia y vinculando el resto a los hermanos étnicos kosovares de Albania o a otro estado- Estados Unidos tiene planes de actuar sin la anuencia de la ONU, argumentando que sólo un Kosovo independiente dará estabilidad a los Balcanes occidentales.

Tal argumento es debatible, y el historial del gobierno kosovar sugiere que es erróneo. Pero la postura de Estados Unidos pierde el rumbo inequívocamente al no prever que el “precedente de Kosovo” incitará inestabilidad y -potencialmente- violencia en otras zonas.

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